the-subprime-crisis-isnt-a-black-swan

The subprime crisis isn't a black swan

The current crisis has more than a few similarities with the Asian financial crisis when it comes to causes and symptoms, and just like 10 years ago in Asia, the post-bubble adjustment in the developed world will take time.

Chi Lo

October 15, 2008

Some analysts argue that the current subprime crisis is a ôblack swanö event. A black swan is a metaphor for something that could not exist and stems from the ancient western belief that, prior to the discovery of black swans in Australia in the 17th Century, all swans were white. A black swan is used to describe the occurrence of a highly unlikely event with unprecedented and devastating effects.

I disagree. The subprime crisis itself is not a black swan event, though the resultant credit crunch and confidence crisis may qualify. This is because all the events and factors leading up to the current crisis were known.

From a macro perspective, the Asian...

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